Early retirement thanks to the Bitcoin. Someone in my circle managed to do just that. In particular the price explosion as of last summer was a major contributor. Would this be an idea for pension funds? APG has received some media questions on the topic over the past few weeks. This resulted in articles, concluding that major investors still hesitate.
Please pay attention to the word ‘still’. Is it just a matter of time? I will get back to you on that one. Let's first take a look at the investment approach of pension funds. The goal is to provide participants with a good pension. An important question is the amount of investment risk you are willing to take. Avoiding all risks leads to a pension that's quite certain, but also quite low. Accepting more risk leads to higher pensions on average, but also to a greater 'variety’ surrounding it. The ultimate investment policy has to match the needs of the participants.
Are Bitcoins a good fit? The price movements are rather substantial. This has very likely disturbed the night's rest of the friend of a friend mentioned above. The price decreased by 70% or more three times in the past ten years. It eventually worked out well for her in euros and she can now catch some extra hours of sleep. My point is that you have to relate the phenomenal price increase to the huge volatility of the prices. When risk-adjusted, the reward over the past ten years is similar to the reward you get from a (50/50) portfolio composed of global shares and bonds (for the wonks: the Sharpe ratio is the same).
But it's all about the future. Do Bitcoins provide added value to a portfolio? In order to establish that, it is important to first determine the return expectations in several ‘weather conditions'. What is the so-called ‘investment case’? Where does the return come from? Just take shares or real estate for instance. Those sectors have recurring revenues - dividends and rental income - that move along with the economy or inflation. That's something you can count on.