What can we expect from quantum technology?

Alongside AI, another development has the potential to turn society upside down: quantum technology. In a recently published report, the Netherlands Court of Audit states that this technology carries major opportunities as well as risks, even if it still sounds like something from the future. What can we expect from this development? We called Thijs Knaap, chief economist at APG. “We shouldn’t lose sight of the advantages this technology offers.”

Although quantum technology sounds complicated, the best comparison is a familiar combination lock, Knaap explains. “People don’t use them as much anymore, but it used to be a common way to lock your bike without needing a key. If you align the three rings to the right code, the lock opens. With the other 999 number combinations, it stays closed.”

And a quantum computer tries all those combinations in no time?
“Exactly, and it can very quickly find the combination you’re looking for. In some areas, that’s great news. Take scientists who study different kinds of proteins. With quantum technology, they can rapidly identify which protein structures have certain properties. That knowledge can be used to develop new medicines. It can also help create better materials for batteries.”

But alongside this promise, the arrival of a quantum computer also brings a major risk. According to the Court of Audit, it could even lead to social disruption.
“The biggest risk of a quantum computer is that it can break cryptography. That is the technology that secures digital information and IT systems, such as your internet connection, online banking, or WhatsApp. But military communication and satellite control also rely entirely on cryptography. If that protection is broken, malicious actors could attack a country’s digital vital infrastructure, like the systems that control bridges and flood defenses, take over satellite operations, or cause significant social and economic damage in other ways.”

That sounds like a serious threat.
“We’re not doomed, though, because there are ways to encrypt information so that even a quantum computer cannot break it. This so‑called post‑quantum cryptography is expensive, requires more computing power, and is therefore slower, but it is certainly feasible in the future. Unfortunately, this technology does not work for cryptocurrencies, so things could go seriously wrong if their security is broken. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are highly decentralized. There is no authority that can decide to switch to post‑quantum cryptography to guarantee their safety again. This is different for the digital euro, which is now gaining momentum. That is also a form of money based on cryptography, but the European Central Bank (ECB) is behind it and has the authority to update the software at any time. In fact, because the digital euro is still in development, it can be designed securely from the start.”

Given all this, should we even pursue quantum technology?
“Absolutely. It’s not an option to wait on developing quantum computers, because a malicious actor could get ahead of you. And post‑quantum technology provides an adequate response to the threat that quantum technology still poses today. It is important for government organizations and large companies to prepare for the potential risks of quantum computers, as the Court of Audit rightly points out. But we should not forget the advantages this technology brings, because they are real. Science will be able to take enormous leaps forward once quantum computers become a reality.”