In other parts of the world, great economists such as Mariana Mazzucato are studying the subject of Carnaval economics, but here it is largely unexplored territory (Mazzucato and Barrington, 2024). Now that the biggest public festival in our country is just around the corner, we ask ourselves: what are the costs, what are the benefits and is the balance positive or negative? We discuss the matter with Charles Kalshoven, macroeconomist and expert strategist at APG.
What costs are associated with Carnaval in the Netherlands?
“The most obvious cost item is the number of people calling in sick after the festivities – during the festivities, people from Brabant and Limburg often take time off. And there is some evidence for that. Figures from Arboned at least show a peak around Carnaval. Other sources indicate that in 2012, about 15 percent of Carnaval revelers called in sick. In total, this amounted to 1.8 million sick days. With a constant proportion of the population and absenteeism behavior of Carnaval revelers, we arrive at a current level of 1.95 million days of sick leave. With an average cost of approximately 400 euros per day per employee on sick leave, this amounts to a total cost of 780 million euros.
In addition to absenteeism, there may also be direct medical costs. In 2023, for example, 77 Carnaval patients were treated in the emergency room in Maastricht, many of them due to excessive alcohol consumption, in line with other years. According to the health insurance guide 2025, the price tag for such a visit to the ER is, on average, 350 euros. If the figures from Maastricht are representative for Limburg and Brabant, these costs will total 850,000 euros.”
Are there other cost categories as well?
“Yes, there sure are. Just think of the costs incurred by municipalities. In 2019, at the request of the television program Stand van Nederland, the CBS (Statistics Netherlands) conducted a study into Carnaval, and the municipality of Breda indicated that it spent over a hundred thousand euros on the festivities that year: 116,000 euros, divided among 80,000 in subsidies for associations, 18,000 for cleaning and 18,000 for enforcement. In recent years, this bill has grown much faster than the economy and the price level. For Carnaval in 2025, it will be 750,000 euros, according to the alderman in charge.
Not all municipalities make such an estimate of direct expenses and more indirect costs. But let’s make a rough estimate of the total costs using Breda as a starting point, where the population is about 5 percent of that in North Brabant and Limburg. Multiplying by twenty would bring the total cost to 15 million euros.”
And what do the economic benefits look like?
“According to the calculations in the study for Stand van Nederland, the more than 1.5 million Carnaval revelers spend an average of 180 euros per day, mainly on 8 million liters of beer. If spending had kept pace with the general price level – which has risen by 23 percent since 2019 – we would now be at 221 euros per person per day, or 884 euros over the four days of Carnaval. That figure, incidentally, is in line with the Boston Consulting Group’s 2020 figures for the Cologne Carnival. At that time, it was 718 euros per participant; in today’s prices 870 euros.
If we assume that the Carnaval population has kept up with the population growth of 8 percent, then we now have 1.6 million Carnaval revelers, who together spend 1.4 billion euros – four days times 221 euros times 1.6 million. This is a conservative estimate, because the run-up to Carnaval begins on the eleventh day of the eleventh month. The prices in the hospitality industry have also risen more sharply – by 25 percent – than the inflation we had calculated with.”