What will 2021 bring in economic and political terms? What will happen with the new pension contract? And with which innovations does APG respond to this? Five APG specialists tell us about their anticipations.
Published on:
8 February 2021
When the lockdown is over, you don't suddenly go to the hairdresser three times in a row"
"I assume the economy will do better in 2021 than it did in 2020. But I do keep my options open. How often will the lockdown be extended? What is the impact of the coronavirus mutants? How smoothly does the vaccination process go? There's still a lot of uncertainty. If everything goes well and we get the virus under control quickly, there's a bigger chance that governments will phase out the support measures and companies will still have to pay tax. Which in turn can lead to a wave of bankruptcies and rising unemployment.
Sentiment in the stock markets is still surprisingly good, helped by the low interest rates and the intervention of governments and central banks. Even though entire sectors were paralyzed by the lockdowns. But those stock prices don't tell the whole story. Don't forget, SMEs and freelancers aren't listed.
It's not just the stock prices that can go either way, the same goes for consumer spending. On the one hand, many permanent employees have been able to spend little money since corona; perhaps they'll start spending a lot again as soon as the shops and the catering industry reopen. But then again, that catch-up demand will be limited: you don't suddenly go to the hairdresser three times in a row. Or eat out every day. On the other hand, some people are financially stuck or keep a tight hand on the purse strings because of all the uncertainty.
Hopefully, once most people are vaccinated, consumers and businesses alike will start spending more on major purchases or investments over the course of this year. Then the global economy will gather steam again. And we may even get to a point where inflation temporarily rises due to bottlenecks. But interest rate hikes by central banks are really still a thing of the future. On the positive side, gone are drawn-out problems like Brexit, and the question of who will be the next US president. I expect a positive stimulus for global climate policy from Biden."
This year, we'll investigate how high or how stable people want their pension to be"
"There is quite broad political support for the Pension Agreement. In addition to the coalition parties, Groen Links, PvdA and SGP were also in favor. So whatever the composition of the new government, that new pension system will most likely come. Despite the fact that political parties - now that the Rutte III government is outgoing - are no longer bound by the coalition agreement.
Several important milestones towards the new Pension System are planned for this year. For example, anyone can now respond online to the "future pensions bill". This consultation round will run until February 12th. This bill is part of the broader Pension Agreement. It includes the new rules for the pension accrued by the employee and employer. The responses from this Internet consultation will be used to improve the bill so that the law can take effect in 2022, as soon as the House of Representatives and the Senate have approved. After that, the social partners and pension providers have until 2026 to switch to the new system.
The pension sector hopes to receive details about the new pension system and how to get there as soon as possible. At APG, we will of course see whether the system can be explained and implemented. We also look at possible implementation risks and the best way to deal with them. In the new system, the pension will be more directly in line with what is happening on the financial markets. This year, we'll be investigating what people think of this, and "how high versus how stable" they want their pension to be. We want to facilitate pension funds to meet the wishes of pensioners and employees as closely as possible. That's why we'll be discussing this with them this year. I think the great thing is that the new system is becoming simpler and easier to explain.
APG is going to collaborate more with other companies, because together, you really do know more"
With the arrival of the new pension system, a lot will change for employees and pensioners. They will have their own pension account into which the pension premium will be paid. You save for yourself, see the fluctuations in your own pension fund. A complicated change. We have to divide the total assets of over 1500 billion euros fairly over millions of personal pension assets. The new pension scheme will be less complex and easier to understand, but getting there still throws up many obstacles. Things like adjusting ICT systems, legal issues, you name it. Fortunately, we still have a few years.
All pension players have to deal with this. That's why APG is increasingly collaborating with pension funds and other pension providers, such as PGGM and MN Services. Not only to collect premiums together and to pay out pensions, but also to learn from each other and save costs. And to find out how we can best communicate with our participants about the coming changes.
In the coming years, people will have plenty of questions about their financial future. They are increasingly in need of a guide to help them with user-friendly solutions and tailor-made advice. Who gives them control over all their financial affairs and prepares workers well for the transition to retirement, for example.
To be able to work in a more customer-oriented way, we want to collaborate more in the coming years with specialized companies with whom we can develop apps, devise new ICT solutions or use data more intelligently, for example. Such as a digital planner that gives you an instant overview of your financial future. Together with other companies, from startups to Nibud, we want to ensure that, as a working or retired person, you can use all kinds of data to see, for example, how much money you will need later on for any desired standard of living. Reasoning from your current lifestyle. We know from research that employees often overestimate how much money they really need later on.
Thanks to cloud technology, we're increasingly able to get the most out of our data"
Innovation specialists Tom Romanowski and Anne-Marie le Doux about innovations and APG's innovation lab.
Tom Romanowski: "Under the new pension contract, every participant will soon have their own, personal pension. This is in line with the social trend towards more individualization. The sector is facing the necessary challenges.
Pension administrators such as APG are now working on all kinds of innovations. And technology continues to increase the possibilities. For example, thanks to cloud technology, we can get the most out of our data in a secure way, without this being at the expense of the privacy of participants. For instance, machine learning helps call center employees so that they can better predict the participants' follow-up questions.
Participants will be given more responsibility and will need advice when making financial decisions. Partly for this reason, APG has already launched Kandoor.nl, where you can get answers on all conceivable financial questions."
Anne-Marie le Doux: "We come up with these kinds of innovative solutions in the GroeiFabriek, APG's innovation lab. In this breeding ground, we focus not only on participants and pensioners, but also on employers and the pension funds that are customers of APG. Employers, for example, they want to know how they can help their employees to be better off financially. Together with a number of employers, we've developed an online platform that enables employees to learn more about their 'financial fitness score' and help them set realistic goals to improve them. And this year, we're also working on innovations that enable employers to make better HR decisions."