To succeed, AI companies need to clear four hurdles. That’s what APG Chief Economist Thijs Knaap said during the investor panel on the BNR Zakendoen radio show, following Nvidia’s latest earnings report.
First, the technology actually has to work. Next, the profits from AI need to flow to the major tech players—the Magnificent 7. That ties into the third hurdle: making sure no new disruptor muscles in. The final hurdle for existing tech giants is the risk that their applications become so all-encompassing that governments feel compelled to intervene. All of these are uncertainties, Knaap noted. “The first hurdle has already been cleared, because AI applications are becoming increasingly impressive. But the second hurdle is already sparking debate: will today’s companies make the money? Nvidia long held a monopoly on supplying chips, but recently it emerged that Google used its own chips for the well-received Gemini 3, their latest AI assistant.”
AI as the common thread
AI was the common thread running through this episode of the investor panel, which also featured Martine Hafkamp of Fintessa Vermogensbeheer. The outlook for Alibaba was also discussed. According to Knaap, the “Chinese Amazon” struggled for a time under strict oversight from Beijing, but now that pressure has eased, the company can grow again. “They’ve made strides with AI. In China, AI is often open source, more specialized, and smaller in scale, so you can run it on your own computer instead of an external server. Alibaba’s AI program has already been downloaded about ten million times. That may seem small for the Chinese market, but it still gives investors hope about the company’s prospects.”
‘Bermuda Triangle of Talent’
Knaap also commented on a collection of responses in the Financial Times to an article by Dutch student Simon van Teutem. Van Teutem argued that too many young people go to work for consultants and financial firms, which he described as the “Bermuda Triangle of talent.” According to Knaap, the reactions in the British paper fall into three camps: “One group is positive, saying they’re very satisfied working in finance—thanks to the good salary and career opportunities. Another group is more negative. Their tone is that things aren’t rosy elsewhere either, citing bureaucracy in government and infighting at nonprofits. And then there’s a group that doesn’t see the problem with this ‘Bermuda Triangle of talent’: according to them, people who work at banks aren’t that smart anyway, so society hasn’t lost much.”
Knaap himself doesn’t really believe in the concept of a “bullshit job.” “The best thing, if you have the chance, is to work for an organization or company you believe in. If that’s the case, you don’t need to worry too much.”