In the movie Yesterday, the Beatles never existed. It’s an almost unthinkable scenario. Considering their influence, it’s hard to imagine a world without them. But that’s hindsight talking. John and Paul could just as easily never have met. Or perhaps they did meet, but without guitars, because they couldn’t afford them. In that case, they’d have had to sing Can’t Buy Me Love a cappella. After all, without money, you won’t get far in a music store.
A few pounds or a handful of dollars—that’s what the first guitars of Elvis, the Beatles, Bob Dylan, and Bruce Springsteen cost back in the day. It doesn’t sound like much, but it was a significant investment at the time. The coin could easily have flipped the other way. These artists might never have made it to the stage, instead ending up in a factory or an office. How much poorer would our musical landscape be without their influence?
This thought crossed my mind while reading an analysis by an American think tank on Trump’s import tariffs. These could seriously disrupt the music world. Major American guitar brands manufacture their high-end models domestically, but their affordable models are produced in Mexico, Indonesia, and China. If tariffs of 10%, 20%, or even 60% are imposed on these imports, the prices of entry-level guitars will soar. And who will bear the brunt? Beginner guitarists. Many of them might never even get started—especially those from financially struggling families. The world could end up missing out on the next Beatles.
I bought my first guitar for 75 guilders, money I’d saved up from a paper route. It was a Japanese imitation of an American brand, and it was second-hand to boot. You couldn’t go much lower than that. At the time, I lacked the expertise to judge its quality, but in hindsight, it was a solid beginner instrument. Of course, my influence on pop music has been non-existent. But that second-hand Japanese guitar undeniably shaped my life. It brought me a lot of joy, and once I got the hang of it, I was able to give others the occasional pleasant evening too. For me, it played an invaluable supporting role in my life—one that wouldn’t have existed had the guitar been unaffordable.
Back to import tariffs. The idea is that they’re supposed to help American manufacturers. But do they actually achieve that? Setting aside the social and cultural harm, do they even make economic sense? Guitar makers like Fender, Martin, and Taylor benefit from global value chains. They produce high-end guitars in the U.S., leveraging their most skilled and expensive workers. If the goal of these tariffs is for America to reclaim production of lower-end guitars from Mexico and China—why, exactly?—that’s easier said than done. It’s tough to make cheap guitars with expensive labor. As a result, entry-level guitar prices could rise, while profit margins shrink along with sales volumes. This could hit the bottom lines of guitar giants and reduce income for music schools.
But that’s not the end of the story. Who will be the buyers of high-end guitars in the future? Today’s beginner guitarists. And import tariffs certainly won’t help grow that group. It’s hard to see how these measures are supposed to benefit American guitar makers.
This might come across as niche whining from a hobbyist. After all, musical instruments make up only a tiny fraction of global trade, right? True, but the harm to this sector is emblematic of the broader economic damage in other industries. Trade wars lead to higher prices and significant uncertainty, which stifles investment. This affects all of us financially, through higher costs or job losses. And those on the lowest incomes are often the most vulnerable.
There’s also a dynamic effect to consider: when products become more expensive, we don’t just end up with fewer guitarists, but potentially fewer software developers, engineers, and food technologists too—professions we desperately need for sustainable economic growth. Trade wars, therefore, harm both our well-being and our prosperity.
Let’s hope things won’t escalate with import tariffs on both sides. For the sake of music, the music industry, and the rest of the economy and society. What will the soundtrack of the coming years be? I hope for Come Together and We Can Work It Out. But I’m strapping in for Help! and Helter Skelter.
Charles Kalshoven is Expert Strategist at APG
Published on:
21 January 2025