Every now and then, I put on Als niet als (‘If Not If’) by Doe Maar. In it, Henny Vrienten sings about chance. If his father hadn’t missed that train in 1946, he never would have met Henny’s mother. It’s a reminder that our lives are just one specific draw from an infinite lottery of coincidences. Without that single encounter, Henny wouldn’t exist—and neither would this column.
I try to hold on to that thought, especially now that the world around us feels shaky on all sides. We humans are wired to think in terms of an “implicit future.” Our brains love simplicity; we almost automatically project today’s line straight into tomorrow. That brings comfort and stability, but it’s also a dangerous oversimplification. History is a chain of scenarios hardly anyone thought possible. The fall of the Berlin Wall redrew the world map overnight. 9/11 changed our view of security forever. Today, AI is a major wild card—and yes, Donald Trump, well, let’s just say he’s doing his best to break existing patterns. Against that backdrop, a business-as-usual scenario looks far less likely.
So what does that mean? That we need a watering can instead of a funnel. We shouldn’t just think about our average expectation, but about a whole range of other possibilities—fundamentally different worlds. Our brains don’t always like that, but a conscious exercise can protect us from tunnel vision.
It’s not so much about predicting the future as it is about training ourselves to be resilient. Otherwise, you’re making an unconscious bet on the one outcome that feels most likely—or most comfortable. That can cost you dearly if the coin flips the other way. And that applies to more than just investors.
Think of it like arranging a prenup before you even step into the wedding boat. Sure, it doesn’t sound romantic when you’ve just picked out the rings. But not all marriages last. If you’ve already agreed on how to clean up the mess if things go south, you’ll save yourself a lot of grief. At least you won’t be fighting over the furniture.
Exploring different side paths helps you become more resilient in different scenarios. That goes for marriage, but also for an investment portfolio. You can react faster to setbacks if you’ve already “lived through” them in your mind. It’s a way to take back control in an unpredictable world. Because if you know you’re prepared for multiple draws from the lottery, you’ve got both a life vest and a parachute. For example, you won’t have all your money tied up in the company you work for. That lets you keep steering today’s course with much more confidence.
And if reality does force you onto the “wrong” train someday? At least you won’t panic. Who knows—maybe, just like with that missed train by Henny Vrienten’s father, something beautiful will come out of it.
Charles Kalshoven is Expert Strategist at APG.