It started as an American tradition after Thanksgiving, and by now it has become a fixed ritual in the Netherlands too: Black Friday. A day, or rather, a week, when we collectively hunt for bargains. Is it smart timing, an economic indicator, or just a marketing trick we’re happy to fall for? We called APG’s expert strategist Charles Kalshoven to find out.
What does Black Friday say about our shopping habits and the economy?
“Black Friday is mainly about goods”, Kalshoven explains. “Services, like hairdressers or restaurants, don’t participate. That’s interesting because recent consumption figures show growth in services, not goods. So Black Friday might give a temporary boost to a segment that’s struggling.”
Still, we shouldn’t overestimate its importance, Kalshoven notes. “If you look at where consumers spend their money, most goes to housing, healthcare, transport, and leisure. Black Friday touches maybe 10 to 15 percent of spending: clothing, electronics, shoes, appliances.”
Can it tell us something about the economy? “Maybe”, Kalshoven says. “Consumer confidence in the Netherlands has improved, wages are rising faster than prices, and the stock market climate is favorable, all of which help. But there’s often a gap between how consumers say they feel and how they behave. If Black Friday performs well, it shows that the positive sentiment we measure translates into actually opening wallets.”
Does Black Friday replace Sinterklaas and Christmas shopping, or is it just smart timing?
“It’s definitely smart”, Kalshoven says firmly. “You can count on Dutch retailers for that, the trading spirit runs deep. It wasn’t consumers but entrepreneurs who brought this shopping day here. They saw Black Friday’s success abroad and thought: we need to do something with that.”
But if you think Black Friday replaces traditional holiday shopping, you’re wrong. “Sure, it’s the perfect moment to buy gifts. Timing matters: consumers see Black Friday as ‘the shopping moment of the year.’ Social media and YouTube reinforce that image. But that doesn’t mean everyone stops shopping before Sinterklaas or Christmas”, Kalshoven explains.
Strategically, retailers have another goal: “They want to prevent customers from waiting until Christmas or going to competitors. So they jump in early and try to tempt consumers into purchases, preferably extra ones they hadn’t planned. There’s also a practical side: online shoppers want to avoid delivery delays. Stretching the holiday shopping period reduces dependence on good weather for physical stores and spreads the pressure on parcel delivery. Retailers play into that smartly.”
Kalshoven emphasizes that the fourth quarter of the year is a great quarter for retail anyway: Sinterklaas, Christmas, and now Black Friday. “For supermarkets, that means luxury breads and festive snacks; for toy stores, extra turnover; and for electronics, a spike in phones and laptops.”
Are those discounts real, and what does that say about our consumer culture?
The Dutch Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM) sees plenty of misleading discounts, Kalshoven notes. “They’ve reported that three-quarters of inspected stores present incorrect offers, making discounts look bigger than they really are.”
Why do we fall for it? “I think it’s cultural”, says the macroeconomist. “Dutch people are action-oriented. We hunt for bargains as if it’s a sport. In Germany, they prefer stable low prices; we love the feeling of having done something ‘smart.’ Black Friday taps into that perfectly.”
Kalshoven compares it to Dutch supermarkets: “There’s always a promotion. In Germany, prices are structurally low, while we love being tempted by two-for-one or five-for-three deals. It’s in our nature. And if one supermarket does it, the others have to follow. Black Friday works the same way: if you don’t join in, your customers run to the competition.”
How sensitive are Dutch consumers to calls for less waste?
“Black Friday is all about consumption, but counter-movements are emerging: Buy Nothing Day, Circular Monday, and Green Friday, a day for repairing, reusing, or creating something from waste. These initiatives put sustainable consumption front and center. Still, they don’t come close to Black Friday’s commercial power.”
The question remains: how long can we sustain this bargain-hunting culture? Kalshoven: “The world is crying out for less waste. In that sense, it’s good that Black Friday no longer falls on just one day. It gives consumers a bit more time to think, and reduces the risk of impulse buys that end up unused in the closet. That’s a waste of money and resources.”